Tuesday, July 8, 2008

Why Democrats Should Be Nervous for November

If you've read the news in the past couple of weeks, you've seen Republicans come out and lament their chances in November's elections. Personally, I think reports of the GOP's demise in November are greatly exaggerated, and there are more than a few signs that the Democrats may be counting their victories before they're won.

- Congressional approval ratings are low. How low? According to Rasmussen, the lowest they've been since Rasmussen has been polling. We're talking single digits here (9% to be precise). Is it any wonder, considering things are getting worse under Democrat control of Congress and they're too busy playing a pathetic game of "gotcha" with the Bush White House? The Democrats may claim 3 election victories for the House, but there won't be too many more victories if they keep falling lower in the polls.

- Obama has high disapproval ratings. For a man who is supposed to be wowing people on the campaign trail, Barack Obama has high disapproval ratings. As of this writing, they are above 50% (53-56% to be precise). For a man who has been running for 1 1/2 years right now, that's not a good sign. Democrats will say that Obama's still beating McCain in the polls, but McCain still enjoys lower disapproval ratings than Obama. This is one of the reasons Obama is going out on the campaign trail showing a new side to him: because we've seen the old Obama and we don't like what we've seen.

- Democrats are having trouble raising funds. After the 2006 Elections, 2008 was all but a lock for the Left. All they had to do was show up. Then, they started running into trouble raising funds for their convention in Denver. That tells me there's more than a little dissent within Democrat ranks that could spell danger later on in the campaign. This also has an impact on Congressional races, since the DNC can divert funds to candidates' war chests. If the funds aren't there, candidates will either have to do more independent fundraising or they will lose the elections.

- Democrats facing challenges...from other Democrats! In previous election years, Democrats in safe districts would rarely, if ever, face a challenge when going for their party's nomination. This year, though, Democrats are facing challenges from within in a number of races. Take Cindy Sheehan, for example. She's running against Nancy Pelosi as an Independent, which could sway that race if enough Democrats and Leftists stay home or split their votes. Even my local Congressman, Leonard Boswell, had to run against a fellow Democrat in spite of being a fixture within the District for years. This doesn't bode well for Democrats if there are hard feelings or withheld votes for the Democrat who wins.

- The Fringe Left isn't happy. Now that Obama has pretty much secured the nomination (barring some weird situation at the convention), he has to try to attract more middle-of-the-road Democrats and Independents. This will not sit well with the Fringe Left, like the DailyKosmonauts, MoveOutOfOurParentsBasements, and the Soros Sock Puppets, who have a very immature approach to politics. See how they went after Joe Lieberman in 2006, and how they still attack him if you need proof of that. Now that Obama's moving right on them, don't be surprised if the Fringe Left starts going after Obama and hard.

- Obama isn't ahead by much. Obama may be ahead in the polls, but most of the time, it's not by much. Media polls usually run around a 3-5% margin of error, meaning the numbers could be off by the margin of error. Right now, Obama's lead in the polls is a little more than the margin of error. For as much as the media say Obama is drawing major crowds and is an agent for change, the numbers aren't reflecting it. I think if McCain stays within striking distance of Obama or even pulls ahead shortly after the conventions, he will win the general election.

And finally...

- The media are pushing Obama a bit too much. It's no secret that the media are so far in Obama's back pocket they're getting stitch marks on their bodies. But they've been putting Obama is a near-divine light since the beginning. Part of that, in my opinion, is because they're reading their own polls and realizing that Obama is vastly underperforming what they've said he's capable of doing. And their love-fest with Obama has embarassed them more than a few times with stories they missed, but other news sources (i.e. the New Media) didn't. So, instead of adjusting their coverage to give a more realistic view of the man, the Old Media are treating him even more like a rock star in the hopes that the McCain voters will get frustrated and think Obama is a fait accompli for the White House.

So, my Republican and conservative friends, fear not. The Democrats aren't nearly as invulnerable as they think they (and some Republicans who will remain nameless to protect the innocent and the wussy) think they are.

1 comment:

Stella Rondo said...

For some time now I have been predicting two things:

1) This race will end up being the fable of the Hare and the Tortoise. The flashy, cocky Hare (Obama) will race ahead, get lazy or arrogant or overconfident. The Tortoise (McCain) will plod along, seemingly kind of dopey and clueless, and eventually cross the finish line to the amazement of all.

2) The name of Obama's next book will be "What Happened?" and when all is said and done, the REAL story of this election will be how very, very ordinary Obama turned out to be.